Gujcot Trade Assocation

GUJCOT MONTHLY RATE MOVEMENT REPORT OCT-23

Posted : April 27, 2024

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

Daily Physical Spot Rate

MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

Cotlook Index

ICE Future Closing

NCDEX Kapas Rate

MCX Future Closing

NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

In October, the New York Futures for December consistently fluctuate within a price range of 82 to 88 cents. On the other hand, March futures consistently exhibit a carrying cost with a price range of 84.5 to 88.5 cents.
The Gaza war and the rate hike by the Federal Reserve were bearish factors, contributing to a negative sentiment in the market. In contrast, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report had a more neutral to bullish influence on market dynamics.
In October, a combination of slow demand and bearish market factors significantly impacted the rates and ultimately led to lower market closures. The rates for December reached 81.22, while those for March reached 83.51. Both contracts experienced monthly losses of 5.93 and 4.41, respectively.
The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was characterized as neutral due to a reduction in production. Nevertheless, this reduction was counterbalanced by decreases in both consumption and export figures.
The Gujcot Spot Rate exhibited a consistent decline and remained in a downward trend throughout the month, starting from the beginning of the month. During the first 15 days, it continued to decrease. However, in the last 15 days, it stabilized within a range between 57,400 and 58,400.
The Indian basis remained within a range of 400 to 550 concerning the New York December cotton future.
The worldwide Cotton & Freight (C & F) cotton value is assessed using the Cotlook index. The Cotlook index fluctuated between 93 to 98 cents, while our Shankar-6 Gujcot price ranged between 88 to 93.5 cents in the spot market. This comparison indicates that on certain days, when our spot rate was somewhat lower, our pricing was competitive for export purposes.
The market experienced selling pressure due to better-than-expected arrivals of both new and old crop, resulting in a prevailing downward trend.
Dry and hot weather facilitated the early opening of cotton bolls, leading to a faster-than-expected arrival of the crop.
The All India cotton arrival gradually increased from approximately 35,000 bales at the beginning of the season to nearly one lakh bales by the end of October.
The northern crop is currently encountering issues related to pests and bollworm infestations. Additionally, Gujarat's cotton crop has suffered losses due to a prolonged dry spell.
The overall start of the new cotton season in India commenced with rates in the lower range compared to the previous year. This was attributed to the slow purchasing activity by Indian spinners.
Spinners are currently experiencing irregular buyer demand, leading to a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach.
In the upcoming month, the cotton arrival may face interruptions due to festival-related factors. However, there is an overall expectation that demand will see improvement in the near future.
There is hope for better times ahead.